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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still